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Week of June 6th Gold Market Update

Gold and silver are and have been trading moderately lower on Friday, pressured by a strong US employment report for May. This week, generally speaking, has been a busy one from an economic standpoint. There was an all-important European Central Bank meeting which took place a day ago, and the outcome of said meeting was exactly what most investors thought it would be.

For a second consecutive week, the market has more or less totally ignored the crisis in Ukraine due to a lack of anything noteworthy stemming from it. In fact, it is looking now like even the pro-Russian rebels may be on the verge of laying down their arms and agreeing to a ceasefire. As always, we will continue to keep a close eye on everything happening in Ukraine, though it is looking like it will continue to have no impact on the precious metals market.

ECB Meeting, US Jobs Data Rounds Out The Week

As was stated earlier, this week was without a doubt one of the busiest in recent history. Of all the highly anticipated pieces of economic data due out during this 5-day trading session, few were more highly anticipated than yesterday’s European Central Bank meeting. With deflationary pressures only growing worse, the collective investing world was in general agreement that the ECB had to do something in order to avoid rapid deflation from becoming an issue in Europe. In the meeting’s lead-up, most investors were convinced that they would see some sort of monetary stimulus enacted by the continent’s central bank, and that is exactly what happened.

Not only did the ECB announce that it is planning on reducing the refinancing rate by 10 basis points, they also introduced a -.1% deposit rate. This news initially pushed the euro currency downward while simultaneously giving the USD room to make gains, but most of these price movements were counteracted by the time yesterday was through. Surprising to most was the fact that gold and silver spot values were able to turn what was looking like a day of losses into substantial gains. Most people are saying that gold and silver’s gains can be directly attributed to the market having already factored in yesterday’s decision beforehand.

Today, however, was not as favorable for precious metals due to the release of the latest non-farm payrolls data for May. After the midweek dealt us a less than stellar ADP employment report, most people were not expecting big things from today’s report. Surprisingly enough, the non-farms data showed that roughly 217,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, good enough to drop the unemployment rate down to 6.3%. As expected, today’s stronger employment report put a good amount of downward pressure on metals, effectively preventing them from salvaging this week.

Week of May 30th Gold Market Update

Gold and silver investors will want to quickly forget this week as precious metals spot values took a turn for the worse. This week, while shortened by the Memorial Day holiday being celebrated on Monday, saw gold prices decline on each and every day as the yellow metal suffered its worst weekly loss in 8 months. Now, on Friday, gold is sitting below $1,250 while silver has finally fallen below $19/ounce.

Market bears were able to so easily take control of the market this week due to the fact that there have been little to no bullish fundamental inputs making their way to the market. The situation in Ukraine is calming down, European monetary stimulus seems to be on the horizon, and precious metals are feeling the brunt of it all. What’s more, risk appetite is and has been on the rise this week, something that is almost always going to work against the spot values of precious metals.

Investors Hold Positions Ahead of ECB Meeting

What little data this week yielded was mostly in the favor of the precious metals bears. Even though the US’ 1st quarter preliminary GDP took a bit of a hit, spot values were still feeling a good bit of pressure throughout a majority of the week.

As a result of this week’s quieter nature, gold and silver were forced to wait things out and roll with the punches. Towards the end of the week, investors were seen mostly holding their positions as the investing world anxiously awaits next week’s European Central Bank policy meeting. As it stands, a majority of the investing world is convinced that the European Central Bank will announce some sort of new monetary stimulus as a result of their meeting next week. Deflationary pressures have been a problem for much of Europe over the course of the past half year or so, and stimulus measures are more or less being seen as inevitable.

Normally, talk of monetary inflation anywhere in the world would give gold and silver spot values a boost. Now, however, it is more than likely that the opposite will happen should the ECB actually announce a new monetary stimulus plan. The reason for this is simple, new monetary stimulus in Europe will drive the value of the euro currency down, when the euro is driven down, the US Dollar will have more than enough room to make significant strides forward. And, as is almost always the case, a stronger US Dollar will make it almost impossible for metals to make any real gains.

Week of May 23rd Gold Market Update

Gold and silver are both edging downward in what is beginning to look like will end up being a week of mild losses for precious metals. There is a key piece of US home sales due out this morning, but all signs are pointing in the direction of it being positive, and, as such, will more than likely put a greater amount of downward pressure on gold and silver.

Investors are exhibiting a more risk-averse attitude as of the early morning hours on Friday, but even this is not enough to drive spot values forward. The upcoming long weekend will see US investors away from the market until Monday, something that is causing more traders to simply hold their positions to what and see what happens this weekend. Ukraine are poised to hold presidential elections on Sunday, and as we all know, there is no way of knowing how that will affect the crisis that has been raging for the past few months.

Weekend Likely To Bring About New Developments

A few elections will be catching the marketplace’s attention this weekend, including a new presidential election in Ukraine and EU parliamentary elections. The results of the most recent EU elections are unnerving for many people who have taken notice of the growing anti-EU sentiment creeping in. These concerns are part of the reason behind why bond yields in many European countries have been on the rise as of late.

Ukraine is scheduled to hold presidential elections this Sunday, and though tensions are presently on the decline, any new development in Ukraine needs to be watched closely. Despite the growing risk-averse attitude throughout the marketplace, the spot values of gold and silver are still edging lower.

Hurting precious metals’ performance perhaps more than any other factor this week has been a rising US Dollar. With the euro presently on the decline, the US Dollar is surging to its highest value in months en route to putting a lot of downward pressure on precious metals. Should the dollar continue to hold its upward trajectory steady, there is really not going to be much room for spot gold and silver to make any major gains.

Week of May 16th Gold Market Update

Gold and silver are feeling downward pressure for a second consecutive day to close out what has been an eventful week. US Treasury prices have been seen rallying towards the end of this week and is causing some investors to pay attention. While there was a decent bit of economic data on the slate this week, most of it had a marginal impact on precious metal spot values.

As we head into the weekend investors will once more be paying attention to the crisis in Ukraine as it continues to develop. There have not been many new developments throughout the week, but tensions remain high as ever as a result of last week’s referendum vote that took place in the Donetsk region of the country. The referendum vote, which took place last Sunday, reportedly saw an overwhelming majority of voters choose that Donetsk should be an independent region. With this in mind, however, it is important to note that there are widespread allegations that the vote was rigged. For this reason and many more, investors will be paying close attention to anything and everything that takes place in Ukraine over the weekend.

Rising Treasury Note Prices Confuse Many

This week saw US Treasury bond prices rally and has, in turn, caused investors to pay very close attention. T-bond and note futures are at their highest points in months while yields are at their lowest points. When you take note of rising Treasury bond prices in conjunction with a small rally in US equities, it is looking more and more like the US economy is continuing along its road to recovery. This has also caused a large number of people to believe that the Fed will continue to taper Quantitative Easing throughout the remainder of the year. As you might have expected, this news is only working to put more selling pressure on gold and silver.

Having said that, however, there is a growing sense of uncertainty spreading across the market and it is very likely that it will cause some investors to turn to safe-haven precious metals. If we continue to see signs of an improving US economy, however, it is more likely that precious metals will continue to feel the selling pressure that we are witnessing today.

At the end of the day there is no real way of predicting what direction precious metals will head in over the next few weeks. Price action has been erratic and unpredictable over the last few weeks and it is looking like such will remain the case for the foreseeable future.

Week of May 9th Gold Market Update

Gold and silver spot values are trading marginally higher to begin the last trading day of the week. There is little on the slate today as far as economic data is concerned, but investors will once more fixate their attention on the crisis in Ukraine as we head into another uncertain weekend. Though the crisis in Ukraine is still far from resolved, it was mostly overshadowed this week by EU economic data as well as speeches made by Vladimir Putin and Janet Yellen.

Crisis In Ukraine Continues To Capture The Market’s Attention

The Ukrainian military has been clashing with pro-Russian rebels since last weekend, but these clashes have mostly managed to stay out of the news. The death toll from the fighting has resulted in dozens of deaths and is only destabilizing the country even more. As it stands, large parts of eastern and southern Ukraine are in the hands of rebels and are looking like they will remain that way for some time.

In fact, there is a referendum scheduled for this Sunday which will more than likely give another large part of eastern Ukraine to Russia. Despite Vladimir Putin making remarks during the midweek that claimed he was ready and willing to pursue peaceful measures in an effort to resolve the crisis in Ukraine, the violence has continued to rage on. Mr. Putin also called upon the rebels to postpone this weekend’s referendum, but that much has yet to be seen. As a result of investors anxiousness with regard to what will happen in Ukraine over the weekend, safe-haven demand for gold and silver was given a noticeable boost earlier today. The boost has not been very large, but it is better than the losses that have been piling up over the last few days. As it stands currently, gold is still sitting below the $1,300 threshold while silver is still below $20/ounce.

Janet Yellen spoke on the same day as Vladimir Putin and in her remarks maintained her positive outlook on the US economy. What’s more, she shocked the investing world by saying that interest rates would remain low for as long as they need to be. Up until this week there were still a large number of investors who believed that interest rates in the US would be risen as early as next spring, but now it seems as though that much will likely not be the case.

Week of May 2nd Gold Market Update

Gold and silver are both trading higher as of the early morning on Friday but will more than likely begin to feel pressure as a result of today’s better than expected employment report for April. There has been a boatload of economic data released this week, most of which has been adversarial to gold and silver spot values. As the US Dollar and US equity markets performed well through the middle parts of this week, spot values continuously declined.

The situation in Ukraine is still catching the attention of the marketplace though things have not really done much in the way escalating this week. With that in mind, it is also important to know and understand that things have not done much in the way of deescalating either. Pro-Russian rebels are still in control of a large majority of the eastern half of Ukraine and are more readily threatening the already threatened stability of Ukraine as a country. Russia is continuing to be defiant while the sanctions the United States are placing on Russian businesses and individuals have done little in the way of changing the opinion of the Kremlin with regard to their neighbor.

Interesting Week of US and World Economic Data

From an economic data standpoint, this week has been one of the busiest investors have experienced thus far this year. Earlier in the week the market was greeted with the 1st-quarter’s US GDP report. Compared to market expectations of more than a 1% annual increase in GDP growth, investors were sorry to hear that year on year GDP growth came in at only one tenth of one percent. While this news would normally put a lot of downward pressure on gold and silver, it didn’t have that effect as the market patiently awaited the conclusion of the latest FOMC meeting.

The FOMC meeting, which took place from Tuesday morning until Wednesday afternoon, did not end up making too much of an impact on the marketplace. The outcome of the meeting was yet another $10 billion reduction to QE, but this was a move that a majority of the market expected the Fed to make. What did hurt precious metals, however, was the fact that the Fed reiterated its positive outlook on the US economy. Despite the first four months of 2014 not being particularly favorable from an economic standpoint for the United States, most are now attributing that to a harsh winter that more or less skewed the countless pieces of economic data we have mulled over this year.

The last piece of US economic data released this week was today’s US Labor Department jobs data for April. During the middle of the week it was clear that the market was expecting non-farm payrolls to grow by anywhere from 200,000-215,000. For the first time in a long time, however, the market was shocked to see April non-farm payrolls grow by more than 280,000. While it is expected that this better than expected jobs report will eventually weigh on precious metals spot values, as of writing this the spot values of both gold and silver were both trading sharply higher.

Week of April 25th Gold Market Update

Gold and silver are both trading higher to close out what has been a mostly uneventful 5-day session. Metals are currently being lifted by increased safe-haven demand as a result of increased tensions in Ukraine. There was not all that much US economic data on the slate this week, and what little data was released did not have too much of an impact on precious metals.

China’s April manufacturing PMI came back weaker than March’s reading and suggested that the manufacturing sector of the economy is still stagnating. Earlier this week it was announced that the central bank of China reduced its reserve requirement ratio for some more rural banks in an attempt to stimulate the agricultural sector of the economy. On the other side of the globe, the EU manufacturing PMI reading for April was released and showed a grouping of European economies that is continuing to grow. While deflation concerns still abound, there is no doubt that the EU economy is performing extremely well so far this year.

Tensions In Ukraine Drive Safe-Haven Demand, For Now

The countless problems plaguing Ukraine have been in and out of the news for the last few weeks now. This week saw things intensify as the Ukrainian military worked to oust pro-Russia militiamen who have taken control of cities along Ukraine eastern border with Russia. There have been a few casualties as a result of the fighting between the rebels but more recently Russian officials have warned that attacks on Russians within Ukraine will be interpreted as an attack on Russia itself. This threat was enough to encourage the Ukrainian military to more or less back off of any and all attempts at ousting the pro-Russia militiamen.

As we head into the weekend, investors are growing increasingly risk-averse and that alone is propelling safe haven demand. Having said that, however, it is unlikely that safe-haven demand alone will allow precious metals to sustain an upward trajectory. That much is yet to be seen but just as quickly as the situation makes its way to the headlines it can just as easily fade to the background. It will be interesting to see how the situation develops over the weekend and what kind of affect it will have on precious metals values come Monday morning.

Week of April 11th Gold Market Update

Gold and silver are trading about even on the day but are going to end the week having posted some solid gains. A few factors came to precious metals’ aid this week, including rising tensions in Ukraine and a somewhat downbeat US Dollar.

There was a healthy amount of US economic data released today, but most of it had little affect on spot gold or silver. Perhaps the most highly anticipated event of the week came on Thursday in the form of the FOMC’s minutes from their most recent meeting.The minutes offered very little in the way of new insight into the tapering of Quantitative Easing or when interest rates would be risen. As of now, however, investors have had time to reflect on recent Fed activity and are convinced that interest rates will not be risen for some time. This news prompted the market to take a more favorable view on gold and silver.

Weak Chinese Data Prompts More Concern

For a second consecutive month, China has recorded a drop in their exports. This news adds to recently growing concerns that the Chinese economy is on the slow down. Now, many market analysts are predicting that China’s economic growth for this year will be smaller than what was originally believed.

Having said that, however, Chinese officials have insisted that they are not going to rush into making any policy changes. There has recently been call for the central bank of China to use monetary stimulus measures to augment the recent dip in economic activity. We will continue to analyze China from an economic perspective over the coming weeks in order to see how things play out.

Crisis In Ukraine Resurfaces

Safe-haven demand for gold and silver was given a boost earlier during the 5-day trading session due to reports of an increased presence of pro-Russian demonstrations throughout Ukraine. These demonstrations, coupled with a large Russian military presence along the Russia-Ukraine border have caused investors to become a bit more anxious.

Just as soon as it seemed like the crisis in Ukraine was done and dusted, it made its way back to the forefront of investors’ concerns.

It will be interesting to see if spot gold and silver can hang on to these gains or if profit-taking over the weekend will drive values back downward. As it stands, gold is sitting above the $1,300 threshold while silver is hovering just above $20/ounce.

Week of April 4th Gold Market Update

Gold and silver spot values are trading higher during the early morning hours of Friday thanks to a weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report from March. Gold is on the verge of crossing over the key $1,300 threshold once more while silver is doing its best to stay above the $20/ounce mark. Though this week was full of relevant economic data, none of it even came close to having the impact that today’s non-farms data had.

As we look ahead to next week it will be interesting to see just how the market ends up digesting today’s news and what it means for spot gold and silver going forward.

Non-Farms Data Disappoints, ECB Holds Rates Steady

This week was home to a flurry of economic activity with new reports stemming from the United States and elsewhere around the world. Having said that, however, no two days were more important to investors than Thursday and Friday.

Yesterday, investors fixated their attention to Europe as the European Central Bank was set to convene for their latest policy meeting. Due to recently budding concerns over deflation hitting the EU, a plethora of market experts began to speculate with regard to whether or not deflation concerns would prompt the ECB to institute some sort of new monetary stimulus measures. When the meeting wrapped up it was reported that the ECB didn’t change interest rates nor did they employ any new stimulus measures. In his address to media in the wake of the meeting, ECB president Mario Draghi made it clear that even though no decisions with regard to stimulus were made at this meeting, those type of measures are far from being out of the question. Now European investors will simply have to play the waiting game over the course of the next few weeks in order to determine just how severe of a problem deflation is really becoming.

Finally, the most important piece of economic data was due out today in the form of March’s non-farm payrolls data. In light of recently positive remarks with regard to the US economy and job growth by the newly appointed Federal Reserve chairperson, the market had been expecting March’s non-farms data to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 200,000+. When the data was made public, however, investors were somewhat surprised to see payroll additions of only 192,000 in March. Though investors were expecting a rise in payrolls of about 200,000, the recent remarks made by Fed members only served to inflate expectations to the point where most were anticipating non-farm payroll additions well above the 200,000 mark. Now, in the wake of the data, spot gold and silver are climbing as US equities are feeling the pressure many expected to be weighing on precious metals.

 

Week of March 28th Gold Market Update

Gold and silver have been on the decline throughout the week and have fallen below key price points. As it stands, spot gold is somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,290 while silver is hovering below $20. A quiet 5-day trading session from an economic and geopolitical standpoint gave the technical bears room to take over control of the market.

Stronger equities throughout this week also made it difficult for precious metals to do anything apart from decline. It will be interesting to see if the weekend break brings out bargain-hunting buyers or if a bleaker long-term outlook on metals will continue to drive metals downward.

Lack of Safe-Haven Demand Hurts Spot Gold and Silver

This week offered a healthy dose of US economic data but it all ended up having very little affect on spot gold and silver. Overall, the tone of the economic data stream from the US has recently taken a turn for the better as most reports recently have pointed towards an improving US economy. This news bodes well for US equities, but has in turn put a lot of downward pressure on precious metals. Weekly jobless claims were also reported to have fallen over the course of the week.

As it stands, gold is sitting at a 6-week low and will head into the weekend at low points unanticipated by the market. Over the last week alone the yellow metals has lost over $100 in value. Silver too has experienced a dismal past week or so.

Amid the quieter atmosphere this week, investors continued to concern themselves with what Janet Yellen said in her most recent comments. Ms. Yellen, while speaking after the FOMC meeting, said that she anticipates QE to be completely eliminated by the end of the year and that interest rates in the US may be risen as early as next spring. Higher interest rates will drastically increase the opportunity costs of hanging on to gold in lieu of other assets and thus completely eliminate buying interest. These events are not guaranteed occur, but the thought alone is enough to scare some investors away from precious metals.

After hitting nearly $1,400/ounce last week, it is interesting for investors to see such volatile price movement. Now it comes time for the investing world to focus on April and everything that it may bring. So far, economic data has been improving in the United States, but worries over China’s economy threaten more than just their own economy.